Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mining slumps, but manufacturing picks up South African output data for December were mixed, but we think that the economy held up well in Q4. Strong manufacturing growth probably offset the weaker performance of the mining sector. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cape Town: Drought unlikely to derail SA economy The worsening drought in the Western Cape threatens to unleash a humanitarian crisis in Cape Town. But even an acute crisis probably wouldn’t be enough to snuff out South Africa’s economic recovery. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The continued recovery of South Africa’s PMI – which rose to 49.9 in January – supports our view that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation edged up to 4.7% in December, but we expect that price pressures will ease in 2018. The next interest rate move will be a cut, though we think this will come after a long pause... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB walks back its hawkish language South African policymakers held their key rate at 6.75% today, but a dovish tone suggests that they have abandoned November’s tightening bias. We expect that the next move will be a 25bp cut in early... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4 Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: ANC drama caps good year for African assets The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4 Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining production Mining production rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2% y/y in October. This provides the first solid sign that the economy retained momentum as it entered the fourth quarter. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy getting into gear Growth in South Africa’s economy remained strong in Q3, suggesting that the country’s recovery is gaining traction. This supports our view that growth will surprise to the upside in 2018. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI The small pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month, coming on the back of an improvement in October, suggests that the sector’s slump eased further in Q4. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
