Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation eased by more than we’d expected in July, raising the prospect of two 25bp cuts later this year, rather than the single cut we currently expect. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales point to stronger Q2 South African retail sales figures released earlier today support our view that the country’s economy returned to growth in Q2. We expect that growth will surprise to the upside over 2017 as a whole. 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data point to Q2 recovery South Africa’s mining and manufacturing sectors both contributed positively to headline growth last quarter. If we’re right that retail sales picked up, then GDP rebounded faster than most expect in... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) PGM output slumped in June as miners struggled with rising costs and falling metal content. We expect output to drop further in the second half of the year. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to an eight year low in July. The indicator, however, frequently overstates weakness, and we doubt things were that bad. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Major economies rebound, policy easing gains pace The latest data support our view that the recoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa’s big three economies will be stronger than most expect. Activity data in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola all suggest that... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Beginning of a gradual loosening cycle The SARB’s easing cycle will be gradual and data-dependent, but the key policy rate will fall to 6.00% by the end of 2018. Looser policy supports our non-consensus view that growth will pick up this... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy bounced back in Q2 The latest South African activity data suggests that, as we had expected, growth rebounded in Q2. Slowing inflation supports our view that the SARB will cut its key policy rate on Thursday. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) PGM output continued to fall in May as years of underinvestment have started to take their toll on production. The release of the new Mining Charter, if unchanged, is only likely to worsen what is... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Institutional worries: Looking beyond South Africa Increased political criticism of the South African Reserve Bank has focused attention on threats to the country’s key economic institutions. But, as we’ve written before, we think that most of these... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1 & Q2) Despite a string of political shocks, South African consumer confidence was higher in Q2 2017 than it was over most of 2016. This supports our view that the worst is over for the country’s troubled... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (May) South African manufacturing data for May show that the sector’s contraction eased in the middle of Q2. Combined with a pickup in consumer spending, this supports our view that GDP growth returned to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ANC divided, but moderates fight back The ANC’s policy conference highlighted divisions within the party, and suggested a significant pushback against its recent leftist turn. While the president’s more populist faction is weakened, a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
