Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector cooled in February, providing another sign that the economy faltered a bit in Q1. Even so, we retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s March manufacturing PMI was surprisingly weak. We retain the view, however, that growth remained strong in Q1. They survey has, after all, given misleadingly negative readings recently. 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. African ratings reprieve provides boost for bonds March was a mixed months for African markets. While most currencies performed well, dollar bonds sold off. Most local markets did, however, gain over Q1 as a whole. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate cut will be a one-off Today’s 25bp interest rate cut does not signal the start of a new easing cycle. We think that policymakers were attempting to seize the opportunity for a quick cut before inflation picks up later this... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A weak start to 2018 South Africa’s seems to have economy slowed in January, but the weakness of recent figures was exaggerated by the comparison with a strong performance at the end of 2017. We think that growth will... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb) & Current Account (Q4 2017) Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Manufacturing output growth in South Africa jumped to 2.5% y/y in January, supporting our view that the economy retained momentum at the beginning of the year. 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Land reform fears are overblown Parliamentary discussions on land reform have prompted much breathless commentary. But, while the proposed changes remain unclear, a mushy compromise is more likely than a Zimbabwe-style land grab. 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth already gaining steam in late 2017 South African Q4 GDP figures were better than even our own above-consensus forecast. We expect that the economy will retain momentum in the coming quarters, and beat consensus expectations in 2018. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Political drama overshadows gradual recovery Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Painful budget prioritises smaller deficit South Africa’s budget suggests that President Cyril Ramaphosa is putting a renewed emphasis on narrowing the fiscal deficit. We think that the shortfall will narrow in the short term, but that the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Political drama masks economic recovery Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma? Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
