Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q4 Recent activity data – particularly today’s November retail sales figures – suggest South African growth stayed robust in Q4. This supports our above-consensus view that growth will remain at 2.0% in... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect The mooted “nationalisation” of South Africa’s Reserve Bank has prompted significant opposition. But the move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have little economic effect... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: ANC drama caps good year for African assets The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC this week sparked a rally in South African financial markets. Over the region as a whole, Sub-Saharan African assets performed well in 2017 with... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update ANC: Ramaphosa rand rally reverses After rallying yesterday ahead of the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of the ANC, the rand fell back this morning as investors appreciated the depth of divisions within the ruling party. The... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy gathered pace at start of Q4 Headlines in South Africaare firmly focused on the country’s political drama, but the most recent activity data suggest that the country’s economy accelerated at the start of Q4. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining production Mining production rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2% y/y in October. This provides the first solid sign that the economy retained momentum as it entered the fourth quarter. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy getting into gear Growth in South Africa’s economy remained strong in Q3, suggesting that the country’s recovery is gaining traction. This supports our view that growth will surprise to the upside in 2018. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI The small pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month, coming on the back of an improvement in October, suggests that the sector’s slump eased further in Q4. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa downgrade: More heat than light South Africa’s latest ratings downgrade wasn’t as bad as the markets had expected; the rand rallied after the country’s local currency debt was cut to junk by S&P but left as investment grade by Moody... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: downgrade largely priced in Fears that bond yields could jump sharply and that the rand could sell off if Moody’s and S&P cut South Africa’s local currency debt to junk status later today look a bit overblown. Much of the bad... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB takes further easing off the table The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) The decline in South African headline inflation last month, to 4.8% y/y, and softening core price pressures may temper expectations in the market for interest rate hikes in the next few months. But... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGM prices got ahead of themselves After years of oversupply, there are now clear signs that the PGM market is tightening. Falling mine supply should help the market to rebalance, but a higher rate of recycling could put a cap on... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recovered a bit in October, but remained very low. Given that it has overstated the weakness of the economy in recent quarters, we wouldn’t read much into today’s... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Deficit a symptom of broader malaise Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy speech confirmed that South Africa’s fiscal position has deteriorated since February. But the deficit – which is not as worrying as some seem to think – is the result... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
