Africa Economics Update South Africa: Budget speech will focus on deficit target South Africa’s new finance minister will probably announce further fiscal tightening in tomorrow’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in order to meet existing targets. This will likely placate... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy finally returning to growth August’s headline mining output figures were very poor. But it still looks like the economy as a whole finally escaped recession in Q3 due to recoveries in the retail and manufacturing sectors. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Aug.) Manufacturing figures released today supported our view that the economy exited recession in Q3. But growth probably remained weak by historical standards, which we think will forestall rate hikes. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued fall of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September underlines the fact that conditions remained tough in Q3. While we think the economy probably exited recession, growth was very weak... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Divided MPC narrowly holds rates Today’s split MPC decision in South Africa shows significant minority support for tighter policy. But if the hawks couldn’t swing today’s vote, it’s unlikely that they will succeed in pushing for a... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a bumpy recovery The latest retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy made a strong start to Q3 and our Tracker points to growth of 2-2.5% q/q saar. But there is mounting survey evidence... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected growth in South African manufacturing recorded in July suggests that the economy made a good start to Q3. But more timely surveys indicate that this momentum hasn’t been... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy formally entered recession in Q2 driven by another poor performance from the agricultural sector. We expect the economy to embark on a recovery over the rest of this year, but a... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The collapse in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August may partly reflect a deterioration in sentiment related to the turmoil in EM financial markets last month. Even so, the data provides an... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected inflation was almost entirely due to sharp rise in fuel costs. Core inflation remained stable, and we think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy on the edge of recession in Q2 Q2 activity data were an improvement on Q1, when the economy contracted sharply. But a weak performance from key sectors has still dealt a blow to hopes that President Ramaphosa would boost growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
