Africa Economics Update S Africa: Unemployment a structural obstacle, not cyclical indicator We wouldn’t read too much into the recent decline in South African unemployment; the measure tells us little about the country’s economic cycle. While many factors contribute to high levels of... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data suggest soft end to 2018 December’s activity data supported our view that growth probably stabilised at about 1% q/q saar in Q4. Despite growing worries about power cuts, we expect that growth will pick up in 2019. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The economic costs of load shedding South Africa’s rolling blackouts anger many, but seem to cause little economic damage. The big risk is that the government will prolong the crisis by propping up Eskom, rather than seriously reforming... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa focuses on Eskom reform President Cyril Ramaphosa used a key speech yesterday to promise to reform South Africa’s state-owned utility and to pitch himself as a gradual reformer in the lead-up to a national election now set... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Early signs point to weak start to 2019 The first raft of South African data suggest that growth remained soft going into this year. But we think that growth will pick up later this year as inflation eases and confidence returns. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Manufacturing PMIs in South Africa and Nigeria both pointed to weak growth in January. Forward-looking measures, however, support our view that growth in South Africa will pick up later this year. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Eskom debt risks overstated, but tough choices ahead Fears that troubles at South Africa’s public power firm will lead to another downgrade of the state’s credit rating seem overdone. Over the long term, however, the utility is not sustainable. Securing... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in South African inflation in December adds to the evidence that the SARB’s much-heralded tightening cycle is now dead in the water. We expect that inflation will remain within target... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB turns dovish, Nigerian opposition flip-flops on reforms Policymakers in South Africa toned down their hawkish language at their meeting this week, suggesting that rate hikes are now off the agenda. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s leading opposition politician laid... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB abandons hawkish turn South African policymakers’ abrupt shift away from their previous hawkish rhetoric suggests that further rate hikes are now unlikely. We think that attention will soon turn to cuts; we expect a 25bp... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slight slowdown in Q4 November retail sales figures added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy slowed a touch in Q4. But economic growth was robust by recent standards, and we think that conditions will improve in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s slowdown in manufacturing growth supports our view that GDP growth eased in Q4 after a very strong Q3. But activity still remained strong (by local standards) and we think that headline... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More signs of strong start to Q4 Retail sales figures released today add to the evidence that South Africa maintained robust growth at the start of Q4. Inflation remained high in November, suggesting another rate hike in Q1 2019. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data points to strong start to Q4 Activity data for October suggest that South Africa’s economy retained the momentum it picked up in Q3. Even so, we retain the view that growth will probably slow over the coming months. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
