Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a bumpy recovery The latest retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy made a strong start to Q3 and our Tracker points to growth of 2-2.5% q/q saar. But there is mounting survey evidence... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected growth in South African manufacturing recorded in July suggests that the economy made a good start to Q3. But more timely surveys indicate that this momentum hasn’t been... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy formally entered recession in Q2 driven by another poor performance from the agricultural sector. We expect the economy to embark on a recovery over the rest of this year, but a... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The collapse in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August may partly reflect a deterioration in sentiment related to the turmoil in EM financial markets last month. Even so, the data provides an... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected inflation was almost entirely due to sharp rise in fuel costs. Core inflation remained stable, and we think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy on the edge of recession in Q2 Q2 activity data were an improvement on Q1, when the economy contracted sharply. But a weak performance from key sectors has still dealt a blow to hopes that President Ramaphosa would boost growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand: Why always me? The rand’s status as a liquid, easily traded currency makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in EM sentiment. But these seldom last, and the SARB will not – as some expect – respond by hiking... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Turkey parallels The falling rand has, yet again, highlighted the currency’s vulnerability to EM risk sentiment. From an economic perspective, however, the country’s situation is very different from Turkey’s building... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa manufacturing production (Jun.) Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector slipped to 0.7% y/y in June, but today’s figures still suggest that the economy just managed to dodge another quarter of q/q contraction in Q2. 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Land reform: Market moves exceed economic risk President Ramaphosa’s call for constitutional change has stoked investor fears of economically-painful land reform. We think that this is overdone, but a poorly-managed process will boost market... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July supports our view that the economy will strengthen in the second half of this year. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
