Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hikes rates, Tanzanian nuts, Ethiopian reforms Hawkish rhetoric from South Africa’s MPC suggests that another rate hike is likely in Q1. But the divided MPC’s appetite for further tightening will dissipate if – as we expect – inflation eases in... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Land reform escalates, SARB will hold rates next week South Africa’s government has taken a big step towards the expropriation of land without compensation, but fears that land reform will disrupt the economy are overblown. Meanwhile, given weak economic... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Economy probably escaped recession in Q3 September activity data released over the past week has been pretty downbeat. But conditions still seem to have improved in recent months, supporting our view that the economy returned to growth in Q3... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s mixed surveys, Mozambique’s debt The raft of survey releases in South Africa this week provided contradictory messages, but on balance we think that conditions continued to improve at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the news that the... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Sep.) South African manufacturing and mining data for September released today support our view that the economy pulled out of recession in Q3, but that growth was very weak. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is probably overestimating the weakness of the manufacturing sector, which we think continued to recover in October. Flattering base effects created by the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mboweni puts growth ahead of fiscal targets The government’s decision to accept a wider deficit rather than tighten policy to meet previous targets will push up debt levels. But so long as bond yields don’t rise sharply (which we doubt is... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation stabilised in September remaining unchanged at 4.9% y/y. We think that inflation has peaked and expect that the SARB will keep its key rate on hold at next month’s policy... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Budget speech will focus on deficit target South Africa’s new finance minister will probably announce further fiscal tightening in tomorrow’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in order to meet existing targets. This will likely placate... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy finally returning to growth August’s headline mining output figures were very poor. But it still looks like the economy as a whole finally escaped recession in Q3 due to recoveries in the retail and manufacturing sectors. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Aug.) Manufacturing figures released today supported our view that the economy exited recession in Q3. But growth probably remained weak by historical standards, which we think will forestall rate hikes. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued fall of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September underlines the fact that conditions remained tough in Q3. While we think the economy probably exited recession, growth was very weak... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
