Africa Economics Weekly

SA coalition cracks, Kenya protests, Ghana debt deal

Disagreements between the South Africa’s largest party, the ANC, and its main partner in the government of national unity, the DA, over cabinet posts reinforces our point that the coalition is fragile...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn

The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary...

21st June 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

S. Africa’s economy slowly turning the corner

South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU) will welcome signs that the economy showed signs of perking up at the start of Q2. We think this burst of momentum has further to run, although...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (May.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal

A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves

Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed...

14th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike

South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non...

7th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q1 2024)

South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s election: entering the unknown

South Africa’s final election results confirmed that support for the ANC fell far short of a majority, leaving it reliant on a coalition with one of the larger opposition parties to stay in power. The...

3rd June 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI plummeted in May and, while we expect conditions to improve as the electricity situation continues to stabilise, alongside recent activity data it underlines the...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: State of play & implications for the SARB

South Africa’s election results have continued to trickle in, but the overriding message since the early hours of the count is that the ANC has fallen well short of a majority. A coalition with one of...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

Capital Daily

South African election adds uncertainty in markets

The early results from South Africa’s general election suggest that the African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of securing a majority, and may be forced into forming a coalition with the...

30th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was never in doubt. Governor Kganyago said as little about the election as was possible, but the MPC will be...

30th May 2024 · 2 mins read