Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy has weak start to 2019 Activity data released today showed that South Africa’s economy faltered in January, but we think that conditions will improve later this year. Weak growth and low inflation will add to pressure for a... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect Talk of “nationalising” the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) put pressure on the rand last week. The move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have no effect on the bank’s... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: (another) downgrade already priced in Fears about a sharp rise in yields if South Africa loses its final investment grade rating on local currency debt look overdone. Most of the bad news already appears to be priced in. 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.2% of GDP in Q4, but this was more due to weak demand than stronger exports. We expect that the shortfall will widen out again this year. 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Growth in South Africa’s economy slowed to 1.4% q/q (saar) in Q4 of last year, but looser financial conditions and a likely fall in inflation mean the economy should strengthen over the course of this... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in February after rolling power cuts hit sentiment in the sector. But we doubt that the actual fall in activity will be as severe as the survey suggest. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: budget reflects Eskom’s problems The wider-than-expected South African fiscal deficit projections announced in today’s budget are a result of measures to deal with the financial troubles of Eskom and other struggling state-owned... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation dropped by more than expected in January and is likely to fall further in the middle of the year, increasing the chances that the rate cuts that we expected in 2020 will be... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Unemployment a structural obstacle, not cyclical indicator We wouldn’t read too much into the recent decline in South African unemployment; the measure tells us little about the country’s economic cycle. While many factors contribute to high levels of... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data suggest soft end to 2018 December’s activity data supported our view that growth probably stabilised at about 1% q/q saar in Q4. Despite growing worries about power cuts, we expect that growth will pick up in 2019. 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The economic costs of load shedding South Africa’s rolling blackouts anger many, but seem to cause little economic damage. The big risk is that the government will prolong the crisis by propping up Eskom, rather than seriously reforming... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa focuses on Eskom reform President Cyril Ramaphosa used a key speech yesterday to promise to reform South Africa’s state-owned utility and to pitch himself as a gradual reformer in the lead-up to a national election now set... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Early signs point to weak start to 2019 The first raft of South African data suggest that growth remained soft going into this year. But we think that growth will pick up later this year as inflation eases and confidence returns. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
