Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa decreased to 4.4% y/y in April due to weaker core price pressures. We think that the headline rate will continue on a downward trend over the rest of the year. Combined with... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to grim result in Q1 March retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2.0% in Q1. This strengthens our belief that the next rate move will be a cut. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy ending Q1 on less gloomy note Activity figures for March were stronger than those for February, but it still looks almost certain that South Africa’s economy contracted in Q1. Conditions seem to have improved in April, and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: Election unlikely to spur reforms President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is all-but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive. The ruling party will, after all... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in April, providing a rare reason for optimism about the sector. This supports our view that economic conditions will strengthen in Q2. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update South Africa This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for South Africa’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Inflation in South Africa picked up to 4.5% y/y in March due to petrol prices, but we think that it will soon ease. We’re sticking to our non-consensus view that policymakers will cut late this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to weak Q1 The latest activity figures add to the evidence that growth in South Africa softened at the start of 2019. Conditions will probably pick up later in the year, but growth will remain tepid. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in March, suggesting that power cuts and soft demand weighed on the sector. Though the measure has a tendency to overstate the weakness of manufacturing... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s inflation concerns fading The South African Reserve Bank’s (relatively) dovish post-meeting communications support our view that the next move in interest rates will be down (probably in early 2020). The markets have moved... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth faltered in early 2019 Retail sales growth picked up in January, but activity data across the economy as a whole were weak at the start of 2019. Growth will probably remain subdued over Q1, but then strengthen later in the... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) South African inflation stayed low in February, and while it will probably pick up over the coming months, it will remain within target. We hold the non-consensus view that the next move will be a cut... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
