Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Dec.) The South African manufacturing sector’s terrible performance in December has set up a weak start to 2020. And, given that power cuts lasted into January, problems in the sector probably continued. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped further in January, adding to the evidence that the economy remained very weak at the start of 2020. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation strengthened in December, and we expect that it will continue to do so in Q1, bringing the current monetary easing cycle to an end after just one more 25bp rate cut. 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Q4 recession likely, SARB to the rescue? UK in Africa This week’s South African economic figures suggest that activity in November was stronger than we’d expected, but we still think that a poor performance in December caused output to fall over Q4 as a... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB launches brief easing cycle South African policymakers surprised the markets by cutting the repo rate, but with inflation set to rise there is limited room for further easing. We expect just one further 25bp cut. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recession still likely, despite stronger November Strong November retail sales figures suggest that South Africa’s economy gained ground in the middle of Q4. Given power cuts in December, however, we expect that output still fell over the quarter as... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa: Recession looms, but exams provide ray of hope Downbeat South African activity figures out this week strengthened our belief that the country’s economy slipped into another technical recession in Q4. On a more positive note, exam results suggested... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Another technical recession looks likely South Africa’s manufacturing sector was struggling even before December’s power cuts, so production almost certainly fell in Q4. Given weakness in other sectors, we think that South Africa slipped... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction continued into Q4 Activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy continued to contract in October. Given the escalation of power sector problems more recently, it’s likely that the economy has now entered recession. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Eskom pulling the plug on growth Severe power cuts in will weigh on the economy in Q4, and raise the serious risk of another technical recession. Even if the economy does manage to return to growth this quarter, recent weakness has... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: 2019 struggles set the scene for weak 2020 The sharp contraction in South African output in Q3 strengthened our view that trend growth in the country is flagging, and that GDP will only rise by a meagre 0.5% in 2020. 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in November, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold going into 2020 South African policymakers left their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, and we expect that it will remain on hold going into 2020. But we do admit that the risk of a cut in the middle of next year has... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: A closer look at the public debt problem South Africa’s public debt burden is not too high, but the direction of travel is very worrying. While the structure of the country’s debts and its deep local capital markets make an acute crisis... 21st November 2019 · 15 mins read
