Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction continued into Q4 Activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy continued to contract in October. Given the escalation of power sector problems more recently, it’s likely that the economy has now entered recession. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Eskom pulling the plug on growth Severe power cuts in will weigh on the economy in Q4, and raise the serious risk of another technical recession. Even if the economy does manage to return to growth this quarter, recent weakness has... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: 2019 struggles set the scene for weak 2020 The sharp contraction in South African output in Q3 strengthened our view that trend growth in the country is flagging, and that GDP will only rise by a meagre 0.5% in 2020. 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in November, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold going into 2020 South African policymakers left their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, and we expect that it will remain on hold going into 2020. But we do admit that the risk of a cut in the middle of next year has... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: A closer look at the public debt problem South Africa’s public debt burden is not too high, but the direction of travel is very worrying. While the structure of the country’s debts and its deep local capital markets make an acute crisis... 21st November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Weak inflation figures have increased the risk of another rate cut at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But with inflation set to pick up over the coming months, we expect that the rate will remain on hold. 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining weak, GDP likely contracted in Q3 Downbeat activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. This adds to the evidence that the risks to our below-consensus growth figures are heavily weighted to the... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update South African bonds and the rand likely to sell-off The loss of the South African government’s final investment grade credit rating is already largely priced in, but there are still reasons to be downbeat on the country’s government bonds, and the rand... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Sep.) Manufacturing output fell further than expected in September, adding to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted over Q3. And a key business survey pointed to continued weakness in early Q4... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 in October, which wasn’t as bad as most analysts had feared. But the measure still suggests that the economy has remained weak in recent months. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK versus South Africa: On and off the rugby pitch With England and South Africa battling for the right to lift the Webb Ellis Cup in the Rugby World Cup final this weekend, we’ve been pondering which of the two economies would come out on top in a... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Waking up to fiscal realities Today’s ‘mini-budget’ was a painful admission that South Africa clearly faces a slowly-unfolding fiscal crisis. The gloomy tone may be an attempt to push for unpalatable economic reforms. But today’s... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s ‘mini budget’: What to look out for South African’s finance minister will try to use tomorrow’s budget speech to put a positive spin on a very worrying situation. In striking a compromise between the need to boost the economy with... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Lingering power problems set to drag on growth Investors’ worries about South Africa’s power sector often focus on Eskom’s growing debts. But a recent government report has also underlined the risk that the faltering grid will struggle to meet... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
