Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The huge fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 confirms our pessimistic outlook for the economy and, with fiscal austerity on the horizon, the recovery will be weak. Policymakers at the central bank will... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The jump in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August confirms that the sector was boosted as the country eased lockdown restrictions further. But with power cuts becoming a problem once again and... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation will probably hover near July’s reading, of 3.2% y/y, in the coming months and, as the economic recovery wavers, we think that more monetary easing lies in store. 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: lockdown easing, but clouds hang over outlook The announcement over the weekend that South Africa is further easing containment measures will probably give a much-needed boost to activity as much of the economy is allowed to reopen. But it looks... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI provided the first strong signal that the sector’s rebound has stalled in recent weeks. With the authorities struggling to bring the virus under control... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation edged up to 2.2% y/y in June and, while it will rise further over the coming months, it is likely to stay close to the lower bound of the central bank’s (SARB’s) target range... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautious, but still scope for further easing Divisions on South Africa’s MPC suggest that some policymakers are keen for the easing cycle to be brought to an end following today’s 25bp cut (to 3.50%). And that seems to be the view priced into... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation plunged to 2.1% y/y in May, which probably takes it near the trough. But even as price pressures start to pick up, the headline rate will remain very subdued, allowing the... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA manufacturing sector one of the worst hit across EMs Hard activity data from South Africa confirm that the economy has been among the hardest hit across major EMs by the coronavirus crisis and, while the lockdown has been eased in recent months, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation in South Africa? Weak core inflation is likely to keep the headline rate in South Africa close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range both this year and next. This should allow the central bank to keep... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade data, oil producers in the line of fire South Africa’s external sector probably shifted from being an economic tailwind to a headwind in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Africa’s oil producers are facing mounting pressure from OPEC to comply... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
