Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in December points to the recovery grinding to a halt at the end of 2020. The recent tightening of virus containment measures, and the slow and limited... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: renewed restrictions to stymie recovery Recently-announced measures to curb South Africa’s second wave of COVID-19 will probably throw the economic recovery off course, with GDP likely to contract in Q1 if restrictions are extended. We... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight drop in South African inflation, to 3.2% y/y in November, will probably be followed by similarly soft readings in the near term. This, coming alongside a lacklustre economic recovery, means... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected rebound in South Africa’s GDP in Q3 is overshadowed by more recent data pointing to a stuttering recovery. And concerns about a second wave of COVID-19 as well as harsh... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November points to the recovery hitting the brakes in the middle of Q4 and, while recent developments regarding vaccines have brightened the... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in South African inflation, to 3.3% y/y in October, was driven by stronger food inflation and so is unlikely to be a major concern for the Reserve Bank. Subdued core price pressures and a... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Split SARB decision signals policy to stay loose Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, but the close decision underlines lingering concerns about a weak recovery and subdued inflation. Even in the Reserve... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Much ado about South Africa’s recovery South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to a lacklustre economic recovery in Q3 but this is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank to deliver further monetary stimulus at tomorrow’s MPC... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s industrial activity inching up The easing of containment measures in South Africa in September supported industrial activity, but the recovery remains sluggish. Leading indicators suggest that the pace of recovery waned further in... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa MTBPS: between a rock and a hard place South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni today fleshed out harsh austerity plans for the next few fiscal years. But the emphasis on spending cuts, including a three-year public wage freeze, will... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small drop in South African inflation, to 3.0% y/y in September, won’t be sufficient to prompt policymakers to resume their easing cycle. Equally, it reinforces the idea that price pressures are... 28th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery lagging behind Hard activity data from South Africa released this week point to continued weakness in the economic recovery in August despite the easing of containment measures. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s next steps: lessons from the GFC The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) experience suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to raise the repo rate within our near-term forecast horizon (to end-2022). Investors... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rise in in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September suggests that further easing of the country’s lockdown measures has boosted activity. But there remain many obstacles to a sustained... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The slight fall in South African inflation, to 3.1% y/y in August, is likely to be followed by subdued inflation rates over the next few months. Even so, the SARB’s easing cycle has now come to an end... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
