Africa Economics Update SARB shrugs off bond market ruckus Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, breaking a recent wave of EM central bank decisions to tighten policy. We suspect that the country’s weak economic... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 2.9% y/y, in February almost certainly rules out a hike in interest rates at Thursday’s MPC meeting. We think that the repo rate will remain... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will be in no rush to tighten policy South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to be in a rush to follow other EM central banks in tightening monetary policy. We think the policy rate will be on hold this year and probably in 2022... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak recovery to follow January slump South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that virus-related restrictions meant that the economy started the year on a very weak footing. We think that the recovery will struggle to gain much... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: lockdown-hit to industry will ease… a bit Tighter virus containment measures imposed in late-2020 in South Africa weighed on manufacturing and mining output in January. We think that industrial activity picked up more recently, but the... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) The slowdown in the pace of South Africa’s recovery in Q4 was less sharp than expected, but the economy is unlikely to gather much momentum over the coming quarters and we still expect GDP to be... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in February suggests that the economy bounced back from around the turn of the year, and the recent easing of lockdown measures should support activity... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s “non-austerity” austerity budget The South African 2021 budget unveiled today was anything but the “non-austerity” budget that Finance Minister Tito Mboweni claimed he was presenting. Indeed, the fiscal plans imply significant... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.2% y/y in January, is likely to be followed by further increases over the next few months but, with the economic recovery still struggling, we... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: strong end to 2020, but weak start to 2021 The upside surprise in South Africa’s mining and manufacturing output in December is unlikely to be repeated in early 2021. Tighter virus containment measures and continued power cuts probably mean... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in December points to the recovery grinding to a halt at the end of 2020. The recent tightening of virus containment measures, and the slow and limited... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: renewed restrictions to stymie recovery Recently-announced measures to curb South Africa’s second wave of COVID-19 will probably throw the economic recovery off course, with GDP likely to contract in Q1 if restrictions are extended. We... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight drop in South African inflation, to 3.2% y/y in November, will probably be followed by similarly soft readings in the near term. This, coming alongside a lacklustre economic recovery, means... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected rebound in South Africa’s GDP in Q3 is overshadowed by more recent data pointing to a stuttering recovery. And concerns about a second wave of COVID-19 as well as harsh... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November points to the recovery hitting the brakes in the middle of Q4 and, while recent developments regarding vaccines have brightened the... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in South African inflation, to 3.3% y/y in October, was driven by stronger food inflation and so is unlikely to be a major concern for the Reserve Bank. Subdued core price pressures and a... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
