Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at South Africa’s public finances The improvement in South Africa’s budget position at the start of this fiscal year has probably now been partially reversed and we think that policymakers will find it increasingly difficult to remain... 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: new cabinet, old problems; SDRs no bonanza This week’s cabinet re-shuffle in South Africa has hit the rand and, while the new finance minister appears to be an investor-friendly choice, it will be a tall order to stabilise the public debt... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI tanked in July as activity was hit by violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. And while activity is likely to rebound this month, South Africa’s... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Vaccines and variants in SSA, post-unrest fallout in SA A boost to vaccine supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to breathe some fresh air into struggling vaccine campaigns across the region at a time when third waves are sweeping across key economies... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dovish SARB to keep rates low for some time Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and the dovish tone of the communications supports our view that interest rates won’t rise until the middle of next year... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics South Africa after the unrest There are signs that the worst of the violence and unrest that has gripped South Africa this week may be over. Any hit to economic activity is unlikely to be long-lasting but the risk that the... 16th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s unrest: the fallout for the public finances The disruption to economic activity from the unrest and violence in South Africa, which now appears to be dissipating, will probably prove to be limited, but the impact on the public finances is... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: further weakness to follow mixed May activity data South Africa’s hard activity data for May painted a picture of a bumpy recovery in Q2, as retail sales grew strongly but industrial sectors showed signs of weakness. With tighter virus containment... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the unrest in South Africa There is clearly a lot of uncertainty over how the protests in South Africa in recent days will develop but there are reasons to think that the impact on economic activity will be towards the milder... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage negotiations, Ethiopia debt restructuring South Africa’s government is giving up further ground in wage negotiations with trade unions, raising the threat that the austerity plans unravel. Elsewhere, Ethiopia has revealed plans to restructure... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
