Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate jumped to a multi-year high of 5.2% y/y last month, the weakness of core inflation and the recent tightening of lockdown measures means that the Reserve... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) South Africa’s economy weathered a second virus wave relatively well, but with cases rising again and other headwinds hanging over the outlook, the recent strength of the recovery is unlikely to last. 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in May points to an improvement in underlying economic conditions in the sector, but we think that the recovery will be held back by key headwinds... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB laying seeds of policy normalisation Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, while laying the foundations for normalising monetary policy. We think that rate hikes are some time off as the Reserve... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation in April, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by energy price effects but there were signs that broader price pressures are starting to build. But even so, we think... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: industry strength unlikely to last South African hard activity data for March paint a bright picture of the recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The easing of lockdown measures combined with favourable base effects are... 13th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Fly in the ointment of strong SA survey data Recently released survey data from South Africa point to a marked improvement in economic conditions but there were further signs that firms are suffering from supply chain disruptions. What’s more... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate crept up to 3.2% y/y in March but this was almost entirely due to energy price effects that will become more pronounced this quarter. In contrast, underlying... 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery back on (a slow) track South Africa’s hard activity data for February show that the recovery resumed following a January slump on the back of a second virus wave. While the economy will probably finish Q1 on a stronger note... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s banks weathering the storm The COVID-19 crisis has caused bad loans at South Africa’s banks to rise, but the impact so far has not been as bad as feared. That said, the hit to profitability in the banking sector, combined with... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s manufacturing sector: a crawling recovery The road to recovery in South Africa’s manufacturing sector will probably be slow and bumpy. Weak domestic demand and persistent power cuts will act as key headwinds, although export-oriented sectors... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The sharp rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in March suggests that the sector bounced back quickly as virus containment measures were eased. But the recovery will continue to be held back by a... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
