Africa Economics Weekly Debt data disclosures, SA fiscal buffer evaporating Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency. At the very... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI softened last month, pointing to a slowdown in the rebound from the hit to activity in July from tighter virus containment measures and violent unrest. Supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Headwinds facing metals exporters It looks like EM exports rose further in August and, possibly, September too. And while we expect them to decline over the coming quarters, they will remain elevated. However, China’s property... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB to keep loose policy stance to bolster recovery Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and concerns about lasting economic damage from the pandemic and recent unrest appear to be growing. Against a backdrop... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 4.9% y/y in August but the temporary factors behind the rise are unlikely to worry policymakers. Subdued core price pressures and the slow economic... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA to struggle to get back on economic feet after July hit South Africa’s hard activity data for July underscored the severe blow to the retail and manufacturing sectors from violent unrest and tighter virus restrictions. While much of the hit has probably... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Putting risky asset valuations into context This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as... 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound looks unconvincing After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat... 10th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s new president off to a good start, SOEs in SA Zambia’s newly elected president has wasted no time to push to restore macroeconomic stability, and reassure investors. But recent concerns about hidden debts could pose a risk to the debt... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read
