Africa Economics Weekly SA’s post-election policy direction, Ethiopia crisis spirals Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC party’s... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA local elections shrink political capital for austerity The ANC’s poor showing in South Africa’s local elections this week may strengthen the hand of factions within the party that want to push back against fiscal consolidation. This tilts the risks... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back last month, pointing to a further slowdown in the sector’s already weak recovery. Persistent headwinds will probably keep manufacturing activity subdued. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC election struggles, Eskom woes, Nigerian subsidies Local elections that take place in South Africa on Monday are unlikely to have a direct impact on macroeconomic policymaking, but a poor showing for the ruling ANC could intensify pressure on the... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) South Africa’s hard activity data for August point to a bumpy recovery following a large hit to the economy in July, adding to reasons to think that interest rates are unlikely to be raised imminently... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would a lower inflation target mean for S. Africa? South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago has recently raised the prospect of lowering the inflation target and, in this Update, we answer five key questions on what it would mean... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s long-term property decline: the fallout for EMs Irrespective of how the current problems in China’s property sector are resolved, property construction there is entering a period of structural decline. Among other EMs, the main effects will be felt... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM supply constraints mount Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
