Africa Economics Weekly Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash? South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In... 3rd December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update We anticipate that the rand will remain weak The South African rand has rallied over the past few days after reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in more than a year following last week’s news about the Omicron variant. Even if the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose... 30th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly African central banks and the EM rate hike club This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: lift-off for rates, but tightening cycle to be slow The South African Reserve Bank fired the starting gun on monetary policy normalisation with a 25bp hike in the repo rate, to 3.75%, today amidst growing concerns about inflation risks. But the... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to output continuing to rebound in the sectors hardest hit by violent unrest in July. But the economy probably still contracted over Q3 as a whole... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate stayed at 5.0% y/y in October, with underlying price pressures remaining soft. That, combined with the fragile economic recovery, supports our view that the... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA’s MTBPS: sticking with austerity… for now Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in South Africa signalled that the government is broadly sticking with its fiscal consolidation plans. But with growing pressures to ramp up social... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update External strains abate, but pockets of risk remain While external risks have subsided across much of Sub-Saharan Africa in recent quarters, pockets of vulnerability remain. External (and, as a result, debt) vulnerabilities look most acute in Ethiopia. 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
