Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 5.7% y/y in January, and with soft core inflation and a bumpy economic recovery, the monetary tightening cycle is likely to be more gradual than... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF? The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as the president vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his party... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: ‘BIG’ expectations for SONA speech South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Most EM manufacturers take Omicron in their stride January’s PMIs suggest that, while industry in China, Brazil and Mexico is struggling, manufacturers elsewhere in the emerging world have started 2022 on a solid footing, despite the surge in virus... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month from the slump in activity on the back of the Omicron wave, but headwinds facing the sector and the wider economy will keep the recovery subdued. 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region to lag behind as debt risks mount Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest... 28th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues its dovish tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank pressed ahead with its tightening cycle by raising the repo rate from 3.75% to 4.00% today as policymakers’ concerns about upside inflation risks and the global monetary... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy performed strongly in the middle of Q4 and the early evidence is that the latest Omicron-driven virus wave inflicted only minimal... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) South Africa’s inflation rate rose to a stronger-than-expected 5.9% y/y in December, probably tilting the Reserve Bank more in favour of continuing to tighten monetary policy. But with soft core price... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
