Africa Economics Update

SARB cautiously cuts by 25bp

The South African Reserve Bank finally joined the EM easing cycle today, lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 8.00%. While the MPC clearly has some lingering concerns about the inflation outlook, we...

19th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

S. Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.'24)

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24)

South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug' 24.)

The dip in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.4% y/y, in August and the further decline in core inflation all but seals the deal on the SARB start an easing cycle tomorrow. We have pencilled...

18th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB to cut, oil prices slump

The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes

The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa GDP (Q2 2024)

South Africa’s economy recorded weaker-than-expected growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 which, coming alongside the easing of inflation pressures, further strengthens the case for an interest rate cut at the...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.)

The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August was disappointing but the survey has been extremely volatile recently and the big picture is that respondents remained optimistic about the...

2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite

Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the...

30th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation

A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24)

GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Unpacking South Africa’s structural growth problem

There’s growing optimism that South Africa’s economy is set for a period of faster growth under the Government of National Unity (GNU). And we think a combination of lower interest rates and higher...

22nd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24)

The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be...

20th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mpox, SA’s geopolitical pivot

This week, the WHO declared mpox a global public health emergency amidst a surge in cases in parts of Africa. Beyond the human tragedy, there may be disruption to economic activity in the region, with...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read