Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt, SA data and stimulus, election challenges Analysis from the IMF this week suggests that, even with debt relief in the pipeline, putting Zambia’s public debt on a sustainable footing will be a tall order. Meanwhile, data this week have raised... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q2 and this is likely to be followed by only modest growth in the coming quarters. The outturn might raise second thoughts at the Reserve Bank about... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s IMF deal sealed, reading tea leaves from SA data This week’s rubber-stamping of Zambia’s IMF deal is certainly a welcome step but, with crucial sovereign debt restructuring details unknown, it remains unclear if it will prove to be sufficient to... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August essentially reversed the sharp decline in July on the back of weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. We expect external... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The latest rise in inflation in South Africa to 7.8% y/y in July will raise the pressure on Reserve Bank officials to continue tightening policy aggressively. Even as signs of a faltering economy... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jun.) The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in July points to a large hit to activity from weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. It will probably take some time before... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB slams on the monetary policy brakes South Africa’s central bank upped the pace of tightening further with a 75bp hike, to 5.50%, as policymakers’ intensifying fears about inflation (and inflation expectations) trumped any concerns about... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in inflation in South Africa to 7.4% y/y in June keeps a 75bp interest rate hike on the table at the SARB’s meeting tomorrow. But with policymakers clearly concerned about the weakness of the... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Demographics to lift growth, but convergence still distant The latest population projections released by the UN this week reaffirm that demographics will support strong GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the long run. But similarly robust income convergence... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (May) The disappointing batch of South African activity data for May suggests that the economy is on course for a mild fall in GDP in the second quarter. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Political risks piling up, rand on the rocks Resurfacing political risks in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are another threat to recoveries that are already facing multiple headwinds, while at the same time raising the pressure on several... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly All aboard the monetary tightening train Recent inflation figures out of the region and remarks from central bank officials point towards more, and potentially larger, interest rate hikes in most African economies over the coming months. A... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in June signals that the rebound from the floods that hit activity in April lost steam at the end of Q2. The sector was probably a considerable drag on... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read