Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in South Africa eased a bit more than expected, to 7.4% y/y, in November and there were encouraging signs that core price pressures are fading. The figures will provide room for the Reserve... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Conundrum in SA, Nigeria’s cash limits, Ghana’s debt South Africa’s political upheaval took a breather this week but fears about the state electricity company, Eskom, have grown. Problems at Eskom not only pose a threat to economic activity but, if left... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy rebounded in Q3, with a 1.6% q/q expansion, but the underlying picture was less rosy as growth was supported by a build-up of inventories; household spending contracted... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update “Farmgate”, Ramaphosa and South Africa’s economy The damning report into corruption allegations surrounding South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa has increased the possibility of him either resigning or being removed from office. Even if he stays... 1st December 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, to 52.6, but underlying activity in the sector is likely to remain subdued as the combination of sustained power cuts and fiscal and monetary... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have a bit further to run Most central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa raised interest rates over the past month and, in contrast to many other parts of the emerging world, we think tightening cycles will last a while longer... 29th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB to keep taming “inflation monster” for a while Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 7.00%, signalled that policymakers remain in inflation-fighting mode and the tightening cycle has further to run. That said... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the rand’s rally will prove short-lived Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. In view... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up unexpectedly in October, to 7.6% y/y, and the jump in core inflation will be a particular worry for policymakers. Another 75bp hike in the repo rate... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Hawks to rule in upcoming SA & Nigeria rate decisions In next week’s MPC meetings in South Africa and Nigeria, inflation concerns are likely to hold sway over economic woes, and we expect both central banks to keep raising interest rates. South Africa’s... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) September’s hard activity data out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but it looks like the economy narrowly avoided another contraction in Q3 (and thus a technical recession). Even so, with headwinds... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Manufacturing boost to SA, Kenya’s public finances The surprising strength of South Africa’s manufacturing data for September has lengthened the odds that the economy was in a technical recession over Q2 and Q3. And in Kenya, bond markets have rallied... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in October but persistent electricity supply problems, tight fiscal and monetary policy and a worsening external backdrop mean that the economic recovery... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
