Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.4% y/y, in September supports our view that the Reserve Bank will only turn towards interest rate cuts from next year. 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana inflation, Nigerian oil, IMF forecasts The fall in inflation in Ghana in September gives the central bank some leeway to consider cutting rates at its next meeting. Elsewhere, data out this week showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output rose... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances worsen ahead of MTBPS The continued deterioration in South Africa’s budget position in recent months leaves Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana facing an uphill challenge to reassure investors at November’s Medium Term... 12th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: inflation, debt risks to hold back rate cuts Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt... 5th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a fresh large fall in September, suggesting that the pick-up in activity in August was a one-off. We expect growth to remain sluggish over the coming quarters... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a... 29th September 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA avian flu, Mozambique LNG hopes, CE Spotlight South Africa is in the midst of a severe avian flu outbreak which, coming alongside the effects of loadshedding, has prompted fears of shortages and higher prices for eggs and chicken meat. But this... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s subsidy and new MPC, South Africa fiscal fear The recent pick-up in oil prices will provide welcome hard currency income for Nigeria. But, with local fuel prices being kept stable, high oil prices and a weak naira also signal the return of the... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds and maintains hawkish rhetoric The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold today at 8.25% and continued to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, suggesting that it is in no rush to begin... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Jul.) South Africa’s activity data for July was relatively downbeat, and more timely data suggest that the economy is struggling to regain momentum. With loadshedding having intensified in recent weeks... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The small rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in August partly reflected a fresh pick-up in core price pressures, but we doubt that this will prompt the SARB to restart its... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal rules, Kenya austerity, Ghana CPI This week saw reports that South Africa’s Treasury is proposing to establish a new “fiscal anchor” in a bid to keep investors on side amid a worsening budget position. But a looser fiscal policy seems... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Signs of scarring in South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s unemployment rate has dropped back over the past year or so but it remains far above its pre-pandemic level. The rise in long-term unemployment, which has its roots in both cyclical and... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria policy mistakes, South Africa austerity Recent interventionist actions from Nigeria’s central bank and government have heightened our fears that growing political pressures are undermining policy reforms. This could see Nigeria’s inflation... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Focus What’s behind South Africa’s growth problem? South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major... 6th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The 0.6% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 was stronger than expected but more timely indicators point to a weak start to Q3. And the backdrop of severe power cuts, tight policy and worsening terms... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
