Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next? The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lopsided economic recovery South Africa’s economy continued to pick-up in the middle of Q3 but the recovery is taking place at different speeds across sectors; lower inflation is supporting consumer-facing sectors but industry... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to expect from the BRICS+ summit The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: South Africa Budget – Are the public finances really on the mend? 1730304000 South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit
Africa Economics Update SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique’s election, SA surveys, Ghana debt deal Mozambicans head to the polls on Wednesday with the ruling Fremilo party widely expected to hold on to power. The elections come amid growing signals that key gas projects, which are vital to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in August, finally replicating the improvements we have seen in other survey indicators. A backdrop of interest rate cuts and improving supply conditions... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and... 25th September 2024 · 19 mins read
