Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery stuck in low gear

Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults...

27th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The Central Bank of Nigeria continued its hiking cycle today, raising rates by 200bp to 24.75%, providing further evidence that officials are fighting aggressively to tackle the inflation problem and...

26th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Rates preview: Nigeria to hike, South Africa to hold

The South African Reserve Bank looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 8.25% next week and it now seems an easing cycle won’t begin until after May’s election, the outcome of which could even...

22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

Will Africa unlock its potential?

Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall...

21st March 2024 · 22 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase

The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to...

15th March 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 31.7% y/y in February and the naira’s latest sharp falls mean it will continue to march towards 35% y/y over the coming months. For...

15th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The naira’s march to fair value

The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal

The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short...

1st March 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and...

28th February 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

After a seven-month hiatus, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (new-look) Monetary Policy Committee stepped up to the plate and hiked interest rates by 400bp, to 22.75%, as it showed greater appetite to...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member

South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q4 2023)

Nigeria’s GDP growth rebounded to 3.5% y/y in Q4 but we doubt that this strength will last. Tighter monetary policy, coming alongside the pernicious effects of further weakness in the naira and...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth

Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank...

20th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read