Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

After a seven-month hiatus, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (new-look) Monetary Policy Committee stepped up to the plate and hiked interest rates by 400bp, to 22.75%, as it showed greater appetite to...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member

South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q4 2023)

Nigeria’s GDP growth rebounded to 3.5% y/y in Q4 but we doubt that this strength will last. Tighter monetary policy, coming alongside the pernicious effects of further weakness in the naira and...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth

Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank...

20th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts

The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting...

2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be...

31st January 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans

Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile...

19th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. Aggressive interest rate hikes are long overdue in order to bring inflation under...

15th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism

South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance...

12th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP

Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t...

5th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains

Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote...

4th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Zambia IMF deal, Angola leaves OPEC, DRC elections

Zambia’s continued progress with fiscal consolidation is paying dividends. It unlocked the latest tranche of its IMF deal this week and its compliance with the Fund’s targets may help to progress debt...

22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be...

18th December 2023 · 0 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.)

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to reach 28.2% y/y in November, as the naira’s weakening continued to pass through. Aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to stabilise tackle...

15th December 2023 · 2 mins read