Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria unorthodox remarks, weak South Africa activity Amid signs that the removal of fuel subsidies and devaluation of the naira are weighing on Nigeria’s economy, comments from President Tinubu and potential cabinet members this week reinforced our... 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria and Ghana’s contrasting hikes, Niger’s coup We expect Nigeria’s central bank to follow up its underwhelming 25bp interest rate hike this week, with more aggressive action at the next meeting as inflation should have risen sharply. Still, a... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Food supplies, Nigeria’s iffy price data, Kenya unrest African economies are particularly vulnerable if the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal as well as India’s ban on the export of all non-basmati white rice leads to food supply disruptions. At the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: policy shift already weighing on activity The blow to Nigeria’s economy from a failed demonetisation exercise is fading but there are already signs that the inflationary effects of the devaluation of the naira and removal of fuel subsidies... 18th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Loadshedding in SA, Kenya protests, Nigeria policy shift Cold weather in South Africa prompted officials to return to Stage 6 loadshedding this week, threatening a fresh blow to the economy. We doubt that concerns about the inflationary impact of power cuts... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Risk premia fall back Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Tinubu’s first steps: near-term pain, long-term gain? The removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira are likely to push inflation in Nigeria towards 35% y/y, which will prompt further interest rate hikes by the central bank and weigh on... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Bola goes big, but big enough? This week’s plunge in the Nigerian naira marked the latest positive step by President Bola Tinubu as he seeks to overhaul the economy, but there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious that this... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to a fresh 17-year high of 22.4% y/y and the recent removal of fuel subsidies alongside yesterday’s devaluation of the naira mean that it is likely to surge to... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Nigeria devalues the naira Reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued the naira would, if confirmed, represent another positive policy step by the new Tinubu administration. But we retain our reservations this is a... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What does Emefiele’s suspension mean for Nigeria? The suspension and potential removal of Godwin Emefiele as Nigeria’s central bank governor raises hopes that there will be a shift away from the current unorthodox and interventionist monetary and... 12th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Tinubu takes first steps, SA power projects progress In a positive early move, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in his first week in power. But it looks like the fiscal savings will be spent, leaving public debt on an upwards... 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN tightens further as inflation threats mount The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to raise its policy rate by 50bp, to 18.50%, reaffirmed that officials continue to focus on tackling high and rising inflation at the expense of supporting the... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read