Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Calm after the storm Financial markets in Africa were relatively calm in July following the wide-scale sell-off in June. Currencies, bonds and equities have rallied, although bond yields remain above the lows seen at the... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks call an end to Africa’s easing cycle The main message from this month’s monetary policy meetings in Africa is that the easing cycle that began in several countries in mid-2012 has probably now come to an end. But at the same time we do... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Public debt levels unlikely to rise sharply The twin tailwinds of debt relief programmes from Western governments and high commodity prices have helped to dramatically reduce public debt levels in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years. But... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Positive growth outlook masks key country differences We expect sub-Saharan Africa to remain one of the world’s better performing regions over the next few years. But this masks some key differences between countries, and indeed some economies will... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Economic impact of US Fed tapering likely to be limited Financial markets in Africa have taken a hit over the past month following signals from the US Fed that it intends to taper its asset purchases under QE3. Nevertheless, we think that the economic... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets get the jitters Signals from the US Fed that it intends to scale back its asset-purchasing programme later this year have had a notable impact on most sub-Saharan African markets over the past month. But while the... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for monetary policy? Monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa has all of a sudden become interesting. Ghana surprised expectations by hiking interest rates last month, while countries in East Africa have continued to cut... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: banking sector making progress but challenges remain Almost five years after a domestic banking crisis, there are encouraging signs that Nigeria’s financial sector is slowly returning to health. But while there are reasons to be optimistic, some key... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria may already be the region's largest economy Technical difficulties mean that the proposed rebasing and revision of Nigerian GDP data have now been delayed until 2014. Nevertheless, whenever the revised data are released, they are likely to show... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown masks key nuances Data released over the past month show that GDP growth slowed in both South Africa and Nigeria in Q1, but this masks important differences in the fortunes of the region’s two largest economies. In... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand in freefall The South African rand has collapsed in the past month, falling by over 9% against the US$. The magnitude of the fall means that the currency may now be somewhat undervalued, but we expect it to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria resists government pressure to cut rates The Central Bank of Nigeria resisted government pressure to cut interest rates this afternoon, but we suspect that a combination of below-trend growth and sub-10% inflation will pave the way for... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Q1 slowdown reinforces case for rate cuts The slowdown in Nigerian GDP growth in Q1 was due in large part to the oil sector, but more importantly from the point of view of monetary policy, growth in the non-oil sector also cooled. With... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation across the region? Inflation is likely to slow across West Africa in the near term, meaning that interest rate cuts are still a possibility. By contrast, inflation is likely to accelerate in East and South Africa. In... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
