Energy Update Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy The long delay in explaining its new FX policy is another blow to the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In this note, we examine three key questions raised by the current FX policy... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP figures were far worse than we had expected. It is now likely that Nigeria’s economy will contract over the year as a whole. 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Partial U-turn further muddles monetary outlook The Central Bank of Nigeria hiking its key policy rate from 11.00% to 12.00% is, in many ways, a positive sign. But this flip-flop on rates will raise yet more questions about the unpredictable and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Nigerian inflation rose to 11.6% y/y in February, largely due to the falling parallel market exchange rate. This will deal yet another blow to the controversial FX system. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) The latest Nigerian GDP figures support our view that growth in Africa’s largest economy will be much weaker than most expect. While Nigeria has been battered by low oil prices, the country’s bungled... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Something’s gotta give Nigeria’s currency has come under increasing pressure since the start of the year, and in this Watch we explain why the government’s response is unsustainable and why we think a devaluation of the... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian markets suffer as economy falters The latest drop in oil prices, combined with Abuja’s unorthodox economic policies, sent Nigeria’s financial markets into a tailspin this month. Financial markets elsewhere on the continent also... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in December OPEC production slipped in December, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, but the group’s output is still near record highs. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
