Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Index exclusion another symbolic blow The expulsion of Nigeria from JPMorgan’s GBI-EM bond index will have little practical impact on Africa’s largest economy. But the move is an embarrassing blow to the Nigerian government’s economic... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Structural issues, not oil prices, drag down growth Yesterday’s Nigerian GDP figures showed that the country’s economy slowed even more sharply than weexpected in the second quarter. While low oil prices have battered the economy, the recent figures... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s figures show that Nigerian inflation remained at 9.2% y/y in July, but we still expect that inflation will pick up later in the year. FX restrictions and the eventual weakening of the naira... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Further FX restrictions a worrying sign The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to further tighten restrictions on foreign exchange market will not succeed in reducing demand for dollars. Faced with weak export earnings and tumbling FX... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Cabinet delay raises policy-making concerns President Muhammadu Buhari’s long delay in appointing a new federal cabinet is detracting from his reputation as a decisive reformer and may be a sign of deep divisions within the ruling power. The... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: how to judge a Buhari presidency The inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari this morning was met with widespread optimism in Nigeria, but the 72-year old must act quickly if he is to retain the political momentum and make serious... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets shrug off weak economic news South Africa’s rand rallied over the past month, despite a string of weak economic data suggesting that growth is slowing and inflation is picking up. Nigeria’s naira held steady, but yields on the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian central bank plays down case for tightening The Nigerian Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave its key interest rate at 13% at today’s meeting was not a surprise, but Governor Godwin Emefiele’s comments at the post-meeting press... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today, showing that growth in Nigeria slowed to 4.0% y/y, support our view that the economy will perform poorly in 2015. Growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors was subdued... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI Inflation (Mar.) Nigerian inflation picked up in March, due in large part to the weakness of the naira. While the currency has stabilised in recent weeks, we expect that the effects of its previous sharp depreciation... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Political triumph, but economic challenges ahead It is difficult to overstate the importance of Nigeria’s recent election, which is setting up Africa’s most populous country and largest economy for its first ever democratic transition of power... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
