Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian markets suffer as economy falters The latest drop in oil prices, combined with Abuja’s unorthodox economic policies, sent Nigeria’s financial markets into a tailspin this month. Financial markets elsewhere on the continent also... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in December OPEC production slipped in December, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, but the group’s output is still near record highs. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policy response pushes economy towards crisis Low oil prices are battering Nigeria’s export-dependent economy. But it’s the government’s market-distorting response that risks pushing the country into a Venezuela-style crisis. 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African currencies: Key calls for 2016 In this Watch we outline our key views on African currencies in 2016. First, we expect that both the Angolan kwanza and Nigerian naira will be devalued. Second, we expect that the rand will weaken... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Devaluation inevitable, delays only lengthen the pain Nigeria’s cumbersome FX restrictions are strangling economic growth in the country, and are unsustainable given growing pressure on the naira. We expect that the authorities will be forced to devalue... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: 2016 budget looks too ambitious Nigeria’s 2016 budget, presented to parliament yesterday, relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions, although at least the focus on raising capital spending marks a welcome change. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian equities slide It’s been a bad month for Nigerian markets as local stocks have declined further, reaching their lowest level since February. The latest leg down appears to have been triggered by the central bank’s... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN slashes rates and its own credibility The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its key policy rate in a surprise move today, the latest signal that Governor Emefiele sees slow growth, rather than the slow-burning balance of payments crisis, as... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) GDP figures for Q3 support our long-held view that Nigeria’s 2015 economic performance will be far worse than is commonly expected. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy was just 2.8% in Q3... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New cabinet faces daunting economic challenges Investors are likely to welcome the long-delayed appointment of a federal cabinet in Nigeria. But the newly-appointed ministers face an up-hill battle to revive the economy, and it isn’t clear how... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Data released today showed that Nigerian inflation continued its slow grind higher last month, reaching 9.4% y/y, its strongest rate in over two years. Given the previous slide in the naira and the... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, Emefiele doubles down The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its key interest rate on hold today, while its embattled governor reiterated his support for controversial FX policies in the face of growing criticism. An overdue cut... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
