Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria rate cuts, Kenya instability, Ghana inflation

Nigeria’s central bank governor this week hinted that rate cuts may soon be on the cards but there are still upside inflation risks on the horizon that could scupper those plans. Meanwhile, Kenyan...

12th July 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most...

28th June 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal

A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike

South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non...

7th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus...

28th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q1 2024)

Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed to 3.0% y/y in Q1, driven by a halving in the oil sector growth rate, alongside high inflation and tighter monetary conditions continuing to drag on the non-oil economy. We...

24th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The Central Bank of Nigeria delivered a larger-than-expected 150bp hike to its policy rate, to 26.25%, at its meeting today, reinforcing Governor Cardoso’s recent comments that officials will “do...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation

South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt

Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election...

3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal

The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected...

25th April 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: A slower economy risks turning MPC doveish

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy reforms have injected a welcome dose of momentum back into the country’s policy shift. But the minutes to the latest MPC meetings also suggest that...

24th April 2024 · 4 mins read