Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next? The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up to 32.7% y/y in September, confirming that the CBN’s fears about upside risks from last month’s petrol price hikes were not misplaced. We think the CBN will... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rate cuts, SA visa reforms Continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that the 75bp interest rate cut delivered by Kenya’s central bank is likely to be followed up by further monetary loosening over... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN surprise hike, Kenya’s turn to Abu Dhabi The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise interest rate hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to... 27th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and... 25th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB’s paradox, floods in West Africa and Sahel The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) outlined a “goldilocks” scenario of stronger growth and lower inflation at its MPC meeting this week and, if supply side constraints continue to ease, it may feel... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: key client questions answered We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on... 16th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (August '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dipped to 32.2% y/y in August, confirming the disinflation trend is firmly on course as the pass through from previous sharp falls in the naira continues to fade... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to cut, oil prices slump The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
