Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight... 27th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to a 17-year high of 20.8% y/y last month reinforces our view that policymakers will raise the benchmark rate by a further 100bp, to 16.50%, in November... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and fiscal policy moving in tandem Political considerations ahead of key elections in South Africa and Nigeria are likely to add to reasons to loosen fiscal policy over the coming quarters. And while that may support activity in the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African central banks stepping up to the plate Just like their peers in advanced economies, monetary policymakers across Sub-Saharan Africa have turned more hawkish recently. Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria hiked interest rates... 29th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, weak naira push CBN into large hike The Central Bank of Nigeria upped the pace of its tightening cycle today, increasing the benchmark rate by 150bp, to 15.50%, as officials have become increasingly concerned about sky-high inflation... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Economic pain mounting in Nigeria The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that economic pain is mounting under the weight of troubles in the key oil sector as well as the country’s unorthodox FX policies. With little reprieve on the... 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria oil output, Kenya subsidies, Zambia debt The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s... 16th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate surpassed 20% y/y for the first time in 17 years in August and we think that this will prompt the central bank to respond with a 50bp increase to its benchmark... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt, SA data and stimulus, election challenges Analysis from the IMF this week suggests that, even with debt relief in the pipeline, putting Zambia’s public debt on a sustainable footing will be a tall order. Meanwhile, data this week have raised... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Nigeria picked up to 3.5% y/y in Q2 as woes in the oil sector eased and the non-oil economy held up well. We expect the drag from the oil sector to diminish further in the coming... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
