Capital Daily Diverging China-US economic outlooks may weigh on renminbi With the growth trajectories of China and the US likely to continue to diverge as the year goes on, we doubt the renminbi’s recent rebound against the US dollar will continue. 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Virus & vaccine setbacks push back timing of recovery The world economy lost considerable momentum in the first quarter as resurgences of the virus and tighter lockdown measures weighed on activity. The lesson from Q4 last year was that households and... 16th April 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Divergence among advanced economies in Q1 Both the hard data and more timely surveys imply that the major advanced economies have had a mixed start to the year. The US has fared particularly well, thanks to easing pandemic-related... 11th March 2021 · 15 mins read
US Chart Pack Strong start sets the tone for the rest of 2021 The economy has started 2021 on a stronger footing than we anticipated. The 5.3% surge in retail sales last month underlined just how quickly stimulus cheques fed through to stronger spending on big... 19th February 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Shaking off the underperformance UK assets are well placed to shake off their underperformance since the 2016 Brexit vote by outperforming global assets over the next couple of years. All risky assets will continue to be buoyed by... 15th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Super-sized boosts to energy inflation on the way Higher oil prices will provide a boost to energy inflation in most countries over the coming months, including in Switzerland and the Nordics. In Sweden and Norway, the energy component will be... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation expectations unlikely to lift gilt yields much 10-year gilt yields haven’t been significantly dragged higher by 10-year US Treasury yields because, unlike their US counterparts, break-even inflation rates in the UK have not been boosted by... 27th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Vaccinations lag the US Canada will receive only enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide the equivalent of one dose to 16% of the population by the end of the first quarter. By contrast, even in the... 26th January 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Vaccine to drive recovery but risks remain The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle... 21st January 2021 · 35 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus poses downside risk to Q1 forecast The virus data for the holiday period in the euro-zone are not as alarming as those for the UK, but they will force governments to extend and intensify restrictions in the coming weeks. As a result... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s swings leave more downside than upside The recent swings in sterling triggered by shifts in sentiment towards the chances of a Brexit deal have left little room for the pound to appreciate if there’s a deal, but plenty of room for it to... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
