US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Despite a sixth consecutive month of falling house prices in December, affordability was still stretched even before the renewed rise in mortgage rates. As a result, it is likely that prices will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) The stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP, together with the downward revision to third-quarter GDP growth, leaves the economy in worse shape than the Bank of Canada expected. That is another reason to... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yield curve phoney war With the US yield curve more deeply inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, it is worth (again) considering what the implications for financial markets are. 27th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m rebound in core durable goods orders in January rounds off a month of strong activity releases and suggests business investment will hold up a bit better in the first quarter than we had... 27th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Price reductions and generous incentives offered by homebuilders helped new home sales continue to outperform the wider market in January. But a renewed rise in mortgage rates will weigh on new home... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and Russia’s invasion, one year on Despite first appearances, financial markets haven’t shrugged off the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and we think the ramifications could continue to be important to investors. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Fall in inflation partly due to one-off effects The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in January was partly due to one-off effects, but still reduces the chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to resume raising interest rates... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in activity growth likely to be short lived With markets responding to recent strong data by ramping up interest rate expectations, there doesn’t yet seem to be much need for the Fed to embark on a renewed hawkish turn. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There was another strong rise in commercial crude stocks last week. With little prospect of any upturn in domestic demand anytime soon, commercial stocks should continue to rebound in the coming... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise, but still some way to go this year Q4 property valuation scores rose from their Q3 troughs, as equity earnings yields fell and property yields all increased. Even so, that left all major sectors still looking overvalued, suggesting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rationalising the relative rebound in US big-tech We think the recent outperformance of the US “big-tech” “super-sector” could continue, but not because of the “bargain hunting” that we think has caused it to occur despite higher real Treasury yields... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market may already be braced for “higher for longer” Investors have ramped up their expectations for the near-term path of the Fed funds rate amid talk of “higher for longer”. But long-run expectations for the policy rate have already climbed... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
