US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Growth in the real economy appears to be gathering momentum, but with survey-based indicators still weak and credit conditions continuing to tighten, we expect that rebound to be short-lived. In... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in July was partly due to a weather-related jump in utilities output and, although manufacturing output also rebounded by a solid 0.5%, the surveys suggest... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How remote work could impact US city revenues On the back of the remote work revolution, US downtowns have seen reduced office-led footfall and rising crime rates. Cities will need to be proactive to drive conversion to alternative use and to... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) While the continued above-target gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures may cause some concern for the Bank of Canada, there were still some encouraging disinflationary signs in the July... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.7% m/m jump in retail sales in July suggests that tighter monetary policy is still having remarkably little impact on real economic activity, but that isn’t necessarily a problem for the Fed... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (July) July saw the amount of outstanding debt secured against real estate rise (albeit marginally) after a sharp drop in June, driven by a strong rebound in residential lending. Across the commercial real... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Soft landing” hopes boost dollar despite soft CPI report In spite of last week’s weak US payrolls report and this week’s soft CPI data, the dollar has, on net, risen against all other major currencies this week. This may be partly a result of hawkish... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation and activity data at odds The sudden burst of disinflationary pressure, partly due to a moderation in non-housing core services, is another reason to doubt the narrative that the real activity is gathering momentum. 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data still consistent with soft(ish) landing Although export volumes fell for the second month running in June, the strength of imports suggests that domestic demand is holding up and the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see that import prices... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Prices stabilize, but activity to remain weak With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum... 11th August 2023 · 15 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the bond market swings could mean for equities The big swings in Treasury yields recently have sent some ripples through the US stock market. This Update sets out how we think this will continue to play out, for the equity market as a whole and... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (July) The disinflationary pressures continued to build in July, with both headline and core CPI increasing by a moderate 0.2% m/m. Admittedly, the annual headline inflation rate actually ticked up to 3.2%... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
