Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily EZ markets may keep struggling to shake off concerns in the US We doubt “risky” assets in the euro-zone will be resilient to the further weakness we foresee in their counterparts in the US. 22nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update American protectionism and global fracturing While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of mixed signals on the global economy While not our base-case forecast, the recent resilience of service sectors and labour markets seem to have raised the chance of a “higher for longer” scenario for policy rates. That could be bad news... 21st February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough. But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack January strength unlikely to last The resurgence in activity and employment in January means that there is little chance of the economy falling into recession in the first quarter and we now expect GDP growth of 1.5% annualised. That... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The much smaller rise in core prices in January suggests that headline inflation will fall faster than the Bank of Canada expects, reinforcing our view that the Bank is unlikely to resume raising... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A tale of two pandemics and the importance of valuations Those hoping for stellar gains in the US stock market in the post-COVID years may be disappointed. Its valuation is far less appealing now than it was at the end of the big pandemic of the 20th... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Price correction gathering pace While the recent economic data have surprised on the upside, property market indicators were broadly worse than expected in Q4. Occupier demand softened, particularly in the office and apartment... 17th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still in wait-and-see mode Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated this week that the Bank of Canada wants time to assess the impact of high interest rates, suggesting it will not respond to the strength of employment by immediately... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demographics to boost homeownership in 2024 There are growing signs that stretched affordability is weighing on homeownership, particularly for the under 35s. We expect this to persist in the coming quarters. But there is a large pool of young... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reassessing the implications of disinflation for US equities While more disinflation may yet benefit the US stock market by, for example, facilitating a renewed decline in TIPS yields and boosting profits from the rest of the world if accompanied by a weaker... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy starts the year on a strong footing Echoing the unexpectedly large increase in payroll employment last month, January’s retail sales and manufacturing output data were unquestionably strong too. Admittedly, retail sales appear to have... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt equities and the dollar will move in tandem for long The recent strength of the US dollar and resilience of equity markets is a relatively unusual combination. While that could last for a while longer, we continue to think that the outlook for the... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
