Capital Daily Equity relief rally may not last long The US stock market has rallied so far today and is on track to bring to an end a spell of weekly losses. Although we think that the proximate cause of this recent weakness – rising bond yields – has... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising long rates a fiscal rather than monetary problem The conventional wisdom is that the recent surge in Treasury yields is a reaction to the Fed’s “higher for longer” message. But that surge has been focused solely on the long end of the curve... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. That suggests labour market conditions... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep.) The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Are surging bond yields responsible for surging bond yields? A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flexible offices unlikely to capitalise on hybrid working IWG’s record revenues in the first half of this year may suggest that flexible offices are the answer for many firms as hybrid working cements itself as the ‘new normal’. However, we don’t think... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the bond market meltdown While government bond yields have stabilised today, their sharp rises over recent weeks are increasingly concerning. We think there are four key observations to make at this point. 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2023) Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No support from job growth for Chicago and NYC offices Office-based jobs are on course to underperform total jobs this year for the first time since 2009 and there is a growing risk this could be repeated in 2024, though that is not yet our central... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to easing wage growth Although the job openings rate rebounded sharply in August, we suspect that was more noise than a signal that the labour market is enjoying a resurgence. The rest of the JOLTS report presented a more... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
