US Economics Update

Are the upside risks to core inflation mounting?

We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued...

3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

Asset Allocation Update

What to make of the industrial heartland of the US stock market?

Since mid-2022, the average stock in the industrials sector has returned more than the average stock in all other sectors of the S&P 500. This raises the question of whether investors have a rose...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Mall divergence to persist as luxury boosts top-tier assets

While we have been talking up the prospects for retail, malls remain the underperforming subsector in our forecasts. But that covers a wide range of likely performance. Indeed, as luxury retailers...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Services (Sep)

The surge in the ISM services index to a 17-month high of 54.9 in September, from 51.5, is a good reminder that the contrasting weakness in manufacturing is not a systemic threat to the modern...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

Asset Allocation Update

Will US equity underperformance last?

While some drivers of the US stock market’s recent underperformance are likely in our view to persist, we think that they will soon be outweighed by renewed enthusiasm about AI. And only when the...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2024)

The impact of lower mortgage rates was finally evident in mortgage applications in September, with applications for home purchase rebounding to a three-month high. With mortgage rates falling to...

2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024)

All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of...

2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read

Capital Daily

Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks

Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if...

1st October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Update

JOLTS point to further easing in wage growth

The August JOLTS data provides some reassurance against fears that labour market conditions will deteriorate further, while the sharp fall in the private quits rate suggests that core services...

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2024)

The ISM manufacturing index was unchanged in September, although the jump in the production index and rebound in new orders paint a slightly less negative picture heading into the fourth quarter.

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Miami apartment market to feel the heat over 2025-28

Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of...

1st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation...

30th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Revisions clear up some nagging doubts

Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based...

27th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways

We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read