Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The GST holiday meant that headline inflation remained below the 2% target in January, but there is clear evidence that underlying inflation pressures are building. Given the tariff threat hanging... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Return-to-office headlines obscuring the truth 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff threats mount on multiple fronts Even if the 25% tariff on all goods scheduled for March 4th is postponed again, Canada is still set to face the same tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the US just weeks later. Added to that... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US reciprocal tariffs will be a big deal After a hot CPI report this week and a not-so-hot PPI report (at least not in the components that count) we estimate that the Fed’s preferred core PCE price measure increased by 0.28% m/m in January... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is Trump’s love for tariffs really reciprocal in markets? US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pursue imposing reciprocal tariffs triggered rallies in bond and equity markets, but we would be surprised if investors were really enthusiastic... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Unpacking the Trump-Putin call The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jan. 2025) The rise in industrial production in January is not as good as it looks as it was driven by a weather-related surge in utilities and a further post-strike recovery in aerospace & parts output. 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2024) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in December suggests that the earlier recovery in the sector has hit a wall. New orders rose only modestly, by 1.3%, confounding hopes that the sector... 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The large fall in control group retail sales in January, together with the timelier data showing a slump in vehicle sales, suggests that real consumption fell last month. While weather effects were... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump's reciprocal tariffs a bigger deal than universal measure President Trump appears to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10% or 20% on imports from all other countries. But the broad criteria that will be used to assess his new... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US PPI (Jan 2025) Final demand PPI increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m, but the components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price measure were, on the whole, very tame. As a result, we now estimate that... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off has a bit further to run Another January price surge has sparked a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, and supports our view that further Fed rate cuts are off the table this year. While we think US equities will resume their... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail is back, but online will remain a drag into the 2030s Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
