US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

The strong 0.7% m/m rise in control group retail sales in September suggests that consumption growth strengthened to more than 3% annualised last quarter. That said, timelier data show a big drop in...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Sep. 2024)

The fall in manufacturing output in September was entirely due to the disruption caused by the Boeing machinists’ strike and Hurricane Helene. Indeed, with these impacts excluded, industrial...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Bank to accelerate loosening with 50bp cut

The Bank of Canada has said that it would be willing to cut interest rates “more quickly” if the data surprised to the downside of its forecasts, which is exactly what has happened since the Bank’s...

16th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024)

The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter...

16th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the tech rebound has further to run

Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already...

15th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Canada Drop-In: Why the market is coming round to our BoC rates call

1729699200

We’ve long held the view that the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates at an aggressive pace – and market pricing is quickly aligning with our forecast for a 50-basis point m

US Commercial Property Update

Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents

Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of...

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

The large downside surprise to headline inflation in September and muted monthly gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures support our view that the Bank of Canada will choose a more...

15th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Residual seasonality something to note, not fear

Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core...

14th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Flagging previous climate risk notes

In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US.

14th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Hurricanes add to upside inflation risks

Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

October meeting will be a close call

The stronger labour market data makes the Bank of Canada’s decision in October a close call but, with upside inflation risks fading, and demand still very weak, we think t he Bank will want to bring...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak

The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is...

11th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct. 2024)

The trivial fall in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October was likely driven in part by Hurricane Helene, although the fall in the expectations index suggests the mood among...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read