FX Markets Weekly Wrap

The election and the dollar

The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Are markets starting to price in a Trump win?

With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Bonds Update

Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet

Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Week of soft data sets up 50bp cut

A string of soft data releases this week should give the Bank of Canada the necessary confidence to step up the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut at its meeting next week.

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Activity data hold up despite disruptions

The data this week confirmed that retail sales rose strongly in September and industrial production suffered only modestly from hurricane and strike disruption, with our third-quarter GDP growth...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Sep. 2024)

The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Equities Focus

Dim outlook for energy equities

This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming...

18th October 2024 · 12 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary...

17th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

The strong 0.7% m/m rise in control group retail sales in September suggests that consumption growth strengthened to more than 3% annualised last quarter. That said, timelier data show a big drop in...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Sep. 2024)

The fall in manufacturing output in September was entirely due to the disruption caused by the Boeing machinists’ strike and Hurricane Helene. Indeed, with these impacts excluded, industrial...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Bank to accelerate loosening with 50bp cut

The Bank of Canada has said that it would be willing to cut interest rates “more quickly” if the data surprised to the downside of its forecasts, which is exactly what has happened since the Bank’s...

16th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024)

The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter...

16th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the tech rebound has further to run

Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already...

15th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Canada Drop-In: Why the market is coming round to our BoC rates call

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We’ve long held the view that the Bank of Canada will need to cut rates at an aggressive pace – and market pricing is quickly aligning with our forecast for a 50-basis point m