Canada Economics Update Core inflation pressures likely to remain muted We suspect that monthly core price growth will accelerate marginally from the very soft rates seen in the first four months of the year but, on the whole, core price pressures should remain muted... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Caution favours the hold The rapid easing in core inflation pressures this year means the Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates either next week or in July. While it will be a very close call, the recent resilience of... 29th May 2024 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2024) The solid 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in March suggests that competition among buyers for the limited number of second-hand homes on the market remains strong. We expect that to continue for the... 28th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three key questions on the stock market rally’s durability We doubt yesterday’s drop in the US equity market will prove a harbinger of further weakness to come – indeed, stocks have already rebounded today. But the unusual combination of a sizeable drop in... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mission (almost) accomplished The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting were, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2024) Headline and core durable goods both did better than we expected in April, suggesting that the earlier decline in corporate borrowing costs may be feeding through. Nonetheless, with growth in... 24th May 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate credit spreads may end the year near extreme levels Corporate credit spreads have been near historical lows in recent weeks, and we think they will remain close to these levels in the coming months. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Apr. 2024) The spike in mortgage rates to 7.3% in April caused a sizeable drop in new home sales, as buyers decided to wait for a chance of getting a lower rate. We think this will partly reverse in May as... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Healthcare hiring & spending spree has further to run The strength of healthcare employment and spending growth is because the sector is still recovering from the pandemic and also thanks to the jump in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrolments. Employment... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Apr 20 - May 1) The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting are, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
