US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2023) Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This... 28th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US Treasury yield curve and relative returns We expect 10-year Treasuries to outperform 2-year Treasuries between now and the end of 2024, even though we forecast the 2-year Treasury yield to fall by more than the 10-year Treasury yield in that... 28th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Oct. 2023) New home sales reversed most of their rise in the previous month as mortgage rates spiked to 8%. However, we don’t think this marks an end to the strength in new homes sales. That’s because the supply... 27th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly FES creates a “clearer path” for Macklem It would be a stretch to say the government showed fiscal restraint in the Fall Economic Statement, but the announcement of only a few billion dollars in extra spending measures means that Finance... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2024 policy outlook 1702566000 A year of the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation is expected to end with the major DM banks leaving rates on hold at their December meetings.
US Economics Weekly Post SVB bank lending holding up well The SVB crisis back in mid-March sparked fears of a credit crunch, particularly among regional banks who are the principal source of funding for commercial real estate. Post-SVB, while the Fed’s... 22nd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland avoids pouring more fuel on the inflation fire Faced with much higher interest costs, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined very little in the way of new spending measures in the Fall Economic Statement today. Most of the focus was on non... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 23) The economy’s third-quarter strength was not the start of a renewed acceleration and we continue to expect GDP growth to weaken. Regardless, resilient economic growth has not prevented a continued... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2023) Existing home sales fell sharply to a fresh 13-year low in October as the 8% peak in mortgage rates in the same month caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. Mortgage applications for... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the resilience of consumption? We are doubtful that the recent strength of consumption is because real incomes are being understated, as some have suggested. It is more likely that so-called “excess savings” were previously... 20th November 2023 · 5 mins read
