Bonds Focus

Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?

Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive...

25th October 2024 · 17 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Aug. 2024)

The increase in retail sales in August and flash estimate for another rise in September poses an upside risk to the Bank of Canada’s forecast of household consumption in the third quarter. If realised...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies?

We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately.

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Population decline will drag down GDP growth

The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Employment Report Preview

Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strength

We expect the Boeing strike and two recent hurricanes to have temporarily cooled the labour market in October. We think non-farm payrolls rose by 100,000 while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4...

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The increase in new home sales in September was probably supported by the fall in mortgage rates last month. Rates have rebounded since then, however, which lends support to our view that new home...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

The macro & market implications of the US election

We held online Drop-In sessions with clients this week to discuss how we factor the US election into our thinking on the macro and market outlook for the US and other parts of the world. This Update...

24th October 2024 · 10 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another?

The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2024)

The 1% m/m fall in seasonally adjusted existing home sales in September seems underwhelming given last month’s drop in mortgage rates, but the rise in mortgage applications in September points to a...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024)

The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports

Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Are we underestimating the capital value recovery?

The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting...

22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the Treasury sell-off

The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long...

22nd October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Alternatives set to account for above 20% of investment

Alternatives have grown in importance in portfolios in recent years and structural drivers including AI, an aging population and poor housing affordability point to further growth in occupier demand...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Harris versus Trump - as election day approaches

With two weeks to go until election day, Donald Trump has opened a meaningful lead over Kamala Harris in betting markets, although the latest polling suggests the race remains too close to call. To...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read