Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The decline in mortgage rates appears to be supporting demand, with home sales rebounding last month. While prices continued to fall in December, the sales-to-new listing ratio is now pointing to... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial to join offices as worst-performing sector We are downbeat on industrial total returns over the next two years compared to the consensus because of our relatively pessimistic views on both rents and cap rates. And we think the risks to long... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec.) Although the rise in headline inflation in December was mainly due to gasoline price base effects, the more worrying development is that the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures both rose by a larger... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec) Net lending on commercial real estate (CRE) by banks was positive again in December, rising by $4.2bn in the month. (See Table 1.) That said, the monthly change was broadly in line with the average in... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
Event US Housing Drop-In: What do falling mortgage rates mean for the market in 2024? 1706022000 US house prices saw strong gains in 2023, defying widespread expectations for them to fall as surging mortgage rates crimped supply.
Canada Economics Weekly Waiting for Trans Mountain The latest Trans Mountain regulatory hearing will determine whether the pipeline expansion is once again delayed. That would weigh further on the outlook for exports, with external demand already very... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump faces first test in Iowa Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. But the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the primary season this coming Monday, should provide insight into... 12th January 2024 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US housing market calls for 2024 We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is the worst behind us for business bankruptcies? The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings last quarter is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024 Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the future really brighter for the US office sector? A continued pull-back in the spreads of US private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the start of 2024, at a time when those of US high-yield corporate bonds have edged up (see... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update State & local government spending boom set to end The surge in spending by state & local governments has boosted economic growth over the past year but, with tax revenues falling back in recent quarters, that boom is now set to fade. 9th January 2024 · 3 mins read
