UK Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Australia & Canada: explaining contrasting monetary policies The contrasting monetary polices being pursued by the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are a good illustration of why only countries with strong trade and financial links to the... 5th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank of Canada takes the initiative Signs that the downturn in the US is now having a marked impact on Canada prompted the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by a bigger 50 basis points today, to 3.5%. (See Chart.) Moreover, the... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus US corporate profits to fall sharply in 2008 We expect US corporate profits to fall by around 7.5% this year as the impact of the wider economic slowdown more than offsets any boost to earnings from the weaker dollar. This is not yet fully... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far can the euro-zone de-couple from the US? The European and US economies have moved closely together over recent decades, with most major slowdowns in the US followed by an even deeper or more protracted downturn in Europe. But there are some... 3rd December 2007 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus What should we expect from the US-China dialogue? The second meeting of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue this week will be a test of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s non-confrontational approach with China. We think he will be hard-pressed... 21st May 2007 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What should we expect from the US-China dialogue? The second meeting of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue this week will be a test of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s non-confrontational approach with China. We think he will be hard-pressed... 21st May 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time? Unfolding developments in the US sub-prime mortgage market make uncomfortable reading. But do developments in the US have any implications for the UK mortgage market, which has also seen strong growth... 28th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time? Unfolding developments in the US sub-prime mortgage market make uncomfortable reading. But do developments in the US have any implications for the UK mortgage market, which has also seen strong growth... 28th March 2007 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What does the sub-prime crisis mean for the wider economy? The meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector will have a significant impact on the US economy because of its consequences for the housing market, even if there are no contagion effects on the rest of... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Who will a US slowdown hit hardest? The sectors of the UK economy most at threat from a major economic slowdown in the US include manufacturing, the City of London, tourism and the London housing market. But a US slowdown could be bad... 1st March 2007 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing, inflation and the US economy: an update of our views For close to a year now we have been predicting that a sharp housing-led slowdown in US economic growth would take hold in 2007. However, two recent developments have convinced us that the slowdown... 19th September 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much should we worry about US protectionism? The increase in protectionist pressures in the US is likely to come to a head in April, when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington. In a worst case this could result in a trade war with... 21st March 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much should we worry about US protectionism? The increase in protectionist pressures in the US is likely to come to a head in April, when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington. In a worst case this could result in a trade war with far... 21st March 2006 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Where will the housing slowdown hit hardest? The end of the housing boom, which is apparently now underway, is arguably the biggest risk to the US economic outlook over the next couple of years . In previous Focus pieces we have argued that even... 27th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are US Bonds Over-valued? Our analysis suggests that US bonds are currently overvalued, with ten year bond yields around 0.5- 1.0% below long-term sustainable levels. There are two key factors underpinning this conclusion. 31st January 2006 · 1 min read
