Capital Daily

Are investors braced for too much post-election volatility?

Investors are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market, even allowing for the big moves that we’ve already seen in it recently. That’s hardly a surprise, given the result of tomorrow’s election is...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Where will interest rates trough and why?

We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Payrolls overshadowed by election and earnings

October’s distorted payrolls print probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Harris versus Trump: Closing thoughts

Although the betting markets are still convinced that Donald Trump will win next week’s presidential election, the polls remain much closer – and within the margin of error.

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut

While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2024)

The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 15-month low in October suggests that the sector continued to struggle as hurricanes and the ongoing strike at Boeing disrupted manufacturing activity...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Report (Oct.)

The near-complete flatline in payrolls in October was only partly due to disruptions caused by hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Given positive data elsewhere this week, we believe the Fed will look...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Fed Watch

25bp will be the new normal

With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more gradual pace of easing, cutting interest rates by 25bp at each meeting until rates reach 3.00-3.25%. The outcome of next week’s...

31st October 2024 · 8 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q3 RICS survey suggests market has bottomed

The Q3 RICS commercial property survey suggests a recovery is on its way with improvements in both the occupier and investment market headline balances and the majority of respondents believing the...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Focus

What does a declining population mean for Canada?

The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on...

31st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Aug.)

The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Sep 2024) & ECI (Q3 2024)

The news on prices was mixed, with the September data showing that the core PCE deflator increased at a slightly faster 0.25% m/m (or 3.0% in 1m annualised terms) and, in part due to some modest...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q3)

Despite earlier fears that the US economy was headed for recession, growth continued to out-perform other DMs. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 2.8% annualised, down only trivially from the...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Three key points on markets & the US election

With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer.

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read