Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2011) The pick up in GDP growth to 3.9% annualised in the first quarter, from 3.1% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely to be sustained. With the temporary boost to growth from sharply higher energy and auto... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Twin threats to banks' income It's ironic that in the same week that the movie of the book "Too Big To Fail" was first premiered on American television, it was revealed that the net income of US banks was higher in the first... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter growth slowdown The week ahead will be dominated by first quarter GDP and the Bank of Canada's policy decision. We estimate that Canada's economy grew by 3.7% annualised in the first quarter. Temporary disruptions to... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal consolidation will mean slower GDP growth The shift towards fiscal consolidation is another reason to suspect that the US economic recovery will remain muted. We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.5% this year to 2.0% in 2012. In an environment... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long is healthy profit growth likely to last? US corporate profits expanded at an annualised rate of just over 5% in Q1, following an increase of nearly 10% in the prior quarter. Margins were boosted by renewed downward pressure on unit labour... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A temporary slowdown Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that payroll employment increased by around 150,000 in May. That would be the smallest increase since January and would be... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation close to peaking The lagged effect of the rapid run-up in commodity prices over the past year will push CPI inflation up from 3.1% in April to close to 4% by the summer. But now that the upward trend in commodity... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada in no hurry to raise rates It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering hints of imminent rate... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q1) The housing downturn has gone from bad to worse, with the FHFA index showing that prices in the first quarter fell at a faster rate than at any time since the height of the financial crisis in late... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) The 3.6% m/m drop back in durable goods orders in April isn't quite as bad as it looks, at least not when we take into account that decline only partially reversed the 4.4% m/m increase in March... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The second consecutive strong rise in new home sales in April may even underestimate the recent rebound since the data exclude condo sales, which are probably performing better than sales of new... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing renovation boom on shaky ground Renovation investment has risen to historically high levels in Canada. This boom in renovation is another symptom of a broader housing bubble. The very high level of construction employment is another... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US spends an unhealthy amount on health care There is little prospect of getting the Federal deficit under control in the long-term unless spending on health care is reined in or, at the very least, not allowed to continue growing at a faster... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The latest retail sales data confirm that real consumption growth slowed to just above 1% annualised in the first quarter, well below the 5% pace seen in the final three months of last year. Given the... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) Consumer price inflation remained at 3.3% in April, though still up from 2.3% just three months ago. Measures of underlying inflation, more importantly, remained subdued. Provided that inflation... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) & Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Despite the modest fall in the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the first quarter, over four million homeowners are still in serious danger of losing their home. Moreover, it is worrying that... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
