US Economics Update Fed biding its time The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April's retail sales provide more evidence of the negative effects that high energy and rising food prices are having on discretionary consumer spending. Considering that preliminary data for May's... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Most of the 3.8% m/m fall in existing home sales in May, to a six-month low of 4.8m from 5.0m in April, was probably due to the unusually severe weather. Nevertheless, the data are still... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation on the rise The acceleration in core inflation suggests that the threat of deflation has eased significantly, at least for a while, which is one of the key reasons why we don't expect the Fed to respond to the... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Prices unlikely to rise until 2014 We expect house prices to fall a further 3% this year, resulting in a 5% decline in the year as a whole. Although prices may find a floor some time next year, a chronic lack of demand will probably... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter slowdown Domestic demand growth is losing momentum. To make matters worse, disruptions to auto and energy exporters have further dampened overall economic growth in the second quarter. Although we anticipate... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Misery index hits 28-year high Even though the number of Google searches for "double dip recession" has surged and the old fashioned misery index has increased to a 28-year high, Americans are probably not quite as gloomy as those... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing in Canada Speaking in Vancouver today, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney admitted that housing valuations are elevated and hinted that if there were a sudden weakening in the housing sector, then... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't overreact to signs of slowdown We doubt that the signs of a renewed economic slowdown will prompt any knee-jerk reaction from the FOMC at its two-day policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (22 nd June). The accompanying... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr.) April's survey of manufacturers showed that sales fell sharply, down 1.3% m/m, primarily due to disruptions in auto production, caused by parts supply shortages from Japan. Taking into account an even... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of money, including our own Capital Economics' measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April, mainly in response to the Fed's quantitative easing. But with QE2... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worse than the Great Depression The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression. On the Case-Shiller index... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) Today's data releases brought more signs of mounting economic weakness and evidence that the upward pressure on inflation is beginning to fade. 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus House Price Indices - What to watch and why For anyone bamboozled by the abundance of house price indices, which can sometimes provide starkly different messages, we consider the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices to be the most useful and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
