US Economics Weekly US external position not such a big risk to the dollar Although the US is running a budget deficit equal to 9% of GDP and a current account deficit of 3% of GDP, its net external liabilities at 17% of GDP are not actually that large. Last year, they even... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in June, to 55.3 from 53.5 in May, will ease fears that the economy is heading towards a double dip recession. But more generally, the clear slowdown... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) CoreLogic's house price data for May provide further evidence that the five-year long decline in prices may be drawing to a close. We remain concerned that prices may yet slip a little further. Either... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Canada's monthly real GDP was unchanged in April, held back by a 6.9% m/m drop in motor vehicle production. Growth should pick up again in the next few months, however, as the supply disruptions that... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US stock market rally unlikely to last The S&P 500 closed above 1,300 yesterday for the first time since early June and is now about 4% higher than its level at the beginning of the year. There are plenty of optimists who expect the stock... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown sustained Our econometric model suggests that the discouraging 54,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May was followed by a slightly less disappointing 80,000 gain in June. That may go someway to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The increase in the headline CPI inflation rate to an eight-year high of 3.7% in May, from 3.3%, and the pick up in the core inflation rate to a seven-month high of 1.8%, from 1.6%, will no doubt... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household slump will dampen economic growth Canada's recent economic performance has been impressive. After suffering a less severe recession than most other developed countries, it has also enjoyed a relatively more vigorous recovery... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence in June shows that the drop back in equity prices, the rebound in the unemployment rate and the further fall in house prices... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) April's Case-Shiller house price data support other evidence indicating that the rate at which prices are falling has eased. On some measures, prices are actually rising. We still believe that prices... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising core inflation no reason to hike interest rates The increase in the headline CPI inflation rate to an eight-year high of 3.7% in May, from 3.3%, and the pick up in the core inflation rate to a seven-month high of 1.8%, from 1.6%, predictably led to... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homes at the low end of the market still most vulnerable A continuation of tight credit conditions for first-time buyers and a foreclosure pipeline full of homes bought with sub-prime loans will mean that house prices at the low end of the market will... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumers still facing a number of headwinds The sharp drop back in energy prices last week should provide a much needed boost to real consumption in the third quarter. Unfortunately, that boost from falling prices will only be temporary... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (May) The rebound in orders for new durable goods in May will help ease any fears that the economy is headed for a double-dip recession. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the broader picture that economic... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What explains the rebound in core inflation? The conventional wisdom is that the rebound in core inflation mainly reflects a permanent rebound in the growth rate of housing costs. However, the pick up over the past few months is more to do with... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) The modest 2.1% m/m decline in new home sales in May shows that homebuilders are still struggling to sell new builds at a time when housing demand remains in the doldrums and there is fierce... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
