US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) It looks like the annual rate of headline CPI inflation peaked at 3.6% in June, but core inflation edged up to 1.6% last month, from 1.5%, and will continue to climb over the next few months. By the... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Don't read too much into seasonal boost The recent rises in house prices are nothing more than the normal seasonal uplift triggered by the better weather and the end of the school year. After stripping out such seasonal effects, prices on... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks give further reason for pause It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will not offer any hint of imminent rate hikes, while... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jun.) The level of retail sales has been pretty much unchanged in the three months to June, suggesting that annualised real consumption growth in the second quarter was just 0.6% and overall GDP growth was... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a US sovereign credit downgrade rattle Treasuries? Moody’s has become the second major rating agency to put the long-term credit rating of the US government on review for possible downgrade. We think investors in the Treasury market were right to... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts may have peaked this year Housing starts reached an annualised 197,000 units in June, up from a revised 194,000 in the month before. Housing starts this high are arguably well above estimates of demographic requirements, which... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed trivially in May, from C$0.86bn to C$0.81bn. Even so, we still estimate that quarterly net exports were a significant drag on the economy in the second... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) Even though the trade deficit widened in May, to a level last seen just after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it still looks as though net trade made a decent positive contribution to... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Don't fret over expected downward revisions to home sales The expected downward revisions to the number of existing homes sales will not be the disaster widely assumed. Because the house price data will be unchanged, it could even be considered good news as... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling impasse drags on The impasse over raising the debt limit continued last week, although it looks like the two sides are edging closer to a deal ahead of the 2nd August deadline set by the Treasury. If there's no deal... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for a sustained rebound in growth dimming Following 3.9% annualised growth in the first quarter, our latest calculations point to a substantial slowdown in second-quarter GDP growth, to 1.2%. Although we anticipate a partial rebound in the... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature. It's awful from start to finish. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 18,000 last month, down from a similarly muted 25,000 gain the... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Recent employment gains have been respectable, including the 28,400 jobs added in June. The thorny issue, however, is that average hours worked are still well below normal, reflecting the sub-par... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US demand likely to remain sluggish Today's weak employment report should go some way towards dashing the renewed optimism about the US economy which, combined with reduced fears of an imminent Greek default, had propped up commodity... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) It seems very unlikely that the recent easing in the rate at which house prices are falling can develop into sustained and significant price gains at a time when mortgage demand is still in the gutter... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower loan limits won't be a disaster The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
